Focus, Discipline, and Cooperation: The Keys to the New Global Cycle, According to IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva
“It’s time to put the house in order.” That was the message delivered by International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva during the presentation of the IMF’s new Policy Agenda in Washington, D.C. Georgieva emphasized that the global economic landscape remains challenging, and that countries must respond with fiscal discipline, multilateral coordination, and structural reforms […]
How the IMF Supports the Restoration of Access to International Capital MarketsEvidence Shows Positive Impact of IMF Programs on Investor Confidence Recovery
IMF’s Role in Restoring Access to International Capital Markets A new study presented during a panel at the 2025 IMF Spring Meetings brought forward robust empirical evidence on the influence of International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs in reducing external financing costs and restoring capital market access for countries in crisis.The analysis, based on 87 programs […]
Monetary Policy in the Era of Tariffs: Structural Shifts and Supply ShocksA New Context for Central Banks
Monetary policy in the era of tariff escalation, structural changes, and supply shocks represents the new environment faced by central banks globally.In recent years, a series of events—including the pandemic, the energy crisis, wars, and new trade tariffs—has made the conduct of economic policy increasingly complex and challenging. During the panel featuring experts such as […]
Central Bank May Maintain Elevated Interest Rates in 2025 Amid Inflation and Economic Uncertainty
Rising Inflation and Uncertainties Continue to Impact Monetary Policy The increase in the dispersion of market inflation forecasts, as captured by the Central Bank of Brazil’s (Bacen) Focus survey, reflects growing economic uncertainty and a weakening of expectations anchors. This was the assessment delivered by Paulo Picchetti, Director of the International Affairs Department at the […]
IMF 2025: The Real Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Finance and Regulation
How Regulators Are Positioning Themselves on AI The real implications of Artificial Intelligence are now central to decision-making in global financial markets—but are we ready for its risks? During the first panel on Day One of the 2025 IMF Spring Meetings, discussions centered on a theme gaining increasing prominence: Artificial Intelligence and its implications for […]
Global Public Debt Risks: Understanding the Landscape, Projections, and IMF Recommendations
Public Debt Surpasses $100 Trillion: What This Means for the Global Economy Global public debt has reached a historically concerning threshold. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), public debt worldwide surpassed $100 trillion in 2024, equivalent to 92% of global GDP. Projections suggest an even more alarming trajectory: debt levels are expected to exceed […]
Conflict and interest
Muito das expectativas de cortes de juros nos emergentes, que vinham sendo apontadas como um ponto de atratividade desses mercados em meio aos riscos globais, foram desprecificadas. A perspectiva de juros mais altos nos EUA vem se somando à percepção de que o mundo se tornou um lugar mais perigoso, especialmente depois dos ataques do […]
What will be the pace of caution and parsimony?
Estão postas as condições básicas para que os cortes de juros finalmente se iniciem. Adecisão do Conselho Monetário Nacional de estender ao longo prazo a meta de inflaçãoem 3% e o intervalo de flutuação em +/-1,5 ponto porcentual deu novo fôlego à quedadas expectativas de inflação. A NTN-B de 1 ano projeta inflação implícita de […]
Habemus tax reform?
No início de 2023, avaliei a possibilidade de finalmente termos consenso político para aprovarmosa reforma tributária. Os indícios eram alvissareiros: era assunto comum entre os legisladores e entregovernadores dos Estados e municípios, assim como, foco do executivo federal. Em dezembrofoi promulgada a Emenda Constitucional 132 que dá as linhas básicas para a tributação de valoragregado […]
Robustness of the Economy – between good and bad reasons
É intrigante a resiliência da atividade econômica no mundo. Após aperto monetário significativo naseconomias emergentes e em uma das principais economias avançadas, os Estados Unidos, era esperadoque o crescimento mundial estivesse menor. Contudo, as projeções do consenso do mercado e do FMIsão semelhantes; estimam crescimento mundial entre 2,7% e 3% em 2023, pequeno arrefecimento emrelação […]
